The Dow is set to rise 50% through 2030 as the ‘roaring 20s’ are alive and well for stocks, says market vet.

  • With the stock market trading at record highs, the “20s Only” thesis is alive and well.
  • That’s according to Ed Yarden, who expects the Dow and S&P 500 to rise 50% by 2030.
  • “This target can be achieved with a forward P/E of 20 and future earnings at $400 per share,” Yardeni said.

With stocks trading at record highs, the ‘Roaring 20’s’ bull thesis remains intact, according to market veteran Ed Yarden.

Yarden said in a recent note that his roaring 20s thesis, which is based on the idea that AI will help unleash a productivity boom in the economy, will help boost the stock market by 2030, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P. 500 rising to 60,000 and 8,000, respectively.

Yarden said his 2030 targets are based on continued earnings growth and a simple compound annual growth rate of 6%, which is slightly lower than the stock market’s historical average annual return of 7% net of inflation .

Forecast of Dow 60,000 by 2030

Yardeni Research

“This target is achievable with a forward P/E of 20 and forward earnings at $400 per share, up 60% from the $250 per share estimated this year. We think this is possible in our Roaring scenario 2020,” Yardeni said.

S&P 500 forward earnings per share hit $257.20 last week, and analysts currently estimate S&P 500 EPS to rise to $278 in 2025 and $313 in 2026.

“These estimates suggest that $400 by 2030 is quite possible,” Yardeni said.

Helping to drive these gains, according to Yardeni, is continued consumer resilience, which will be fueled by the tens of millions of baby boomers who will spend their nest egg on all kinds of goods and services over the coming decades.

In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Yardeni Research’s chief market strategist Eric Wallerstein outlined the firm’s broad outlook for stocks over the next several years.

“This whole noisy 2020s scenario is now our highest probability outcome. We attribute a 60% probability to that. We have a 20% scenario of a stock market meltdown and if the Fed cuts in advance, we we can see it. You’re fine, you just have to know when to get out,” Wallerstein said.

“And then there’s that 20% scenario where there’s another resurgence of inflation. But right now we see productivity growth really being a strong driver of real incomes and for the next few years driving the market higher .”

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